Market update: 15 July 2025
Australian shares slipped slightly this week with the ASX 200 down 0.3%, despite a strong NAB business survey and gains across five of the eleven major sectors, led by Utilities. The focus was firmly on the RBA, which surprised markets by holding the cash rate at 3.85%. This came despite a 90% expectation of a rate cut. The Board noted it’s more a question of timing than direction, signaling a wait for further confirmation that inflation is moving sustainably back toward target.
In the US, markets ended modestly lower as tariff headlines continued to dominate. Although the 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” was extended to August 1, the US administration has already started announcing new levies, including a 50% tariff on copper imports. This sparked a surge in New York copper futures and a drop in the global benchmark price. Fed minutes revealed a split view on policy direction, with most policymakers anticipating rate cuts later this year, while some indicated cuts could come as early as the next meeting.
European equities ended the week higher, buoyed by optimism around trade deals with the US. However, momentum was tempered late in the week as further tariff increases were announced. Meanwhile, weaker economic data out of the UK and Eurozone, including a second consecutive monthly contraction in UK GDP, pointed to ongoing challenges for regional growth.
In China, equities rose following stronger-than-expected inflation data and relief from the tariff delay. June CPI and core CPI both came in higher, with core inflation posting its strongest reading in over a year. Sentiment was also supported by speculation that Beijing may roll out new stimulus to aid the property sector. Japan, however, ended the week lower as investors processed news of a new 25% tariff on Japanese goods, though optimism for a near-term agreement remains as the deadline moves to August.
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