An insight into the recent market weakness – 06/08/2019
06/08/2019
From George Lucas, Raiz CEO
I would like to be able to say that the trade war between China and the US will end soon. But I don’t think that will be the case. China is perfectly aware that an election is looming in the US in November 2020, and that a trade war might reduce President Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected.
What this means is that market volatility (large down and up moves) may be with us for some time, as the US election is 15 months away.
The recent move by the Chinese in response to Trump’s comments, that he will add tariffs to another US$300 billion of worth of Chinese goods, was to cut US agricultural imports. Not bad news for our farmers but definitely not good for global markets.
At the same time, the Chinese have let their currency, the renminbi, fall sharply against the US dollar. This may have more to do with market forces than China deliberately manipulating its currency. However, overnight the US Treasury has labelled China a “currency manipulator”, further escalating the trade war. This could lead to further sanctions against China from the US in the future.
The harsh reality is that relations (at all levels) are not improving between China and the US, with the inevitable consequence of having a negative impact on markets as investors evaluate the effect the trade war is having on global growth, company profits and employment.
While we cannot eliminate the uncertainty associated with markets, we can try to manage it. The Raiz philosophy of investing small amounts regularly, through our automatic savings features, such as round ups or recurring deposits, can help manage this uncertainty and is one of the keys to having a healthier return and account balance over the long run.
Timing the market at the right time is difficult, even at the best of times. We understand it’s hard when it is your money being affected by market volatility and like you, we want markets to only move in one direction – upwards. But while that’s never the case, in the long term, equity markets do recover from events like these, and continue to rise.
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